A Prediction Market Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro.

In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone.

A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of American actions.

Changing Odds in Predictions

Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody.

A single trader, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a initial bet of over $32,000.

It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Probability Spikes Before Announcement

Platform data shows that users put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd.

But the odds had climbed to over 10% by the end of the day and surged in the morning of the next day, pointing to a rapid movement in positions just before the public announcement was made.

"This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate.

A handful of other individuals also made large payouts from predicting the capture.

Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies

Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.

A new rule presented on the start of the week would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.